Science or just Guessing?

Soon we will see the 2012 edition of the NFL Scouting Combine (starts today). In this meeting top college prospects come together in one dome (the home of the Indianapolis Colts in Indianapolis) and work out in front of cameras. Why? Because team officials, GMs and coaches want to see the players they will likely draft in April's NFL Draft.

But how much should we make of what we see at the Combine? Recently Stephen J. Dubner dedicated a section of his Football Freakonomics blog to the science of drafting and player evaluation. He more or less concludes that "scouting", as sports insiders call it, is actually nothing more than just guessing and when it comes to the draft luck is probably more important than the work you put into player evaluation. Dubner also mentions one all-time bust when it comes to the NFL draft: Ryan Leaf. As he mentions, Leaf once was labeled a "can't miss Quarterback" from the PAC-10 division. A prospect nobody would have considered a mistake-prone player, who never managed to establish himself in the NFL and soon ended up finding himself out of professional football. This year another PAC-10 QB will probably end up getting drafted 1st overall. His name is Andrew Luck. Will he be another Ryan Leaf, or are scouts right and he will have a career like Peyton Manning, the other QN drafted in Leaf's draft class?

My guess is that it is more about the signals than about luck. NFL scouts always look at the size, weight, wingspan and other variables that should indicate how good a prospect a certain player is. Just look at the number 1 passer in terms of yardage in 2011: Drew Brees. He is just 6-0 tall and still is one of the most prolific passers. Two of the top Running Backs of 2011, Maurice Jones Drew and Ray Rice, might have failed to catch the eye of many scouts, as they are really small compared to the average RB in the NFL. That is probably why they were not drafted in the first round.

The NFL Scouting Combine involves a great deal of measuring players. They have to run 40s, broad jump, do tests and participate in position drills. But what really might tell something about the players are the interviews and the attitude they bring to the table. That, along with the tape of their play in the NCAA, should tell more about their talent and potential than their size, weight or 40 time. To evaluate how much luck is involved in the draft and player evaluation one would have to look at the success of different teams over a long period of time. I think there are huge differences between teams over time. The final word on the Economics of drafting is far from being said...