Dienstag, 28. Februar 2012

Market Po(e)wer

As reported earlier here on my blog the NFL Scouting Combine is on the way. Yesterday one player might have earned himself a small fortune by posting unbelievable numbers at the workouts. Dontari Poe, a Defensive Tackle from the University of Kentucky, weighted in at the Combine at  at 346 lbs, standing tall at 6-4.

At that size Poe is literally a giant, being only 21 years old. Even though he has a massive body, he had an amazing workout yesterday in Indianapolis and ran the 40 yards dash in 4.87 seconds. But he was not only fast, but also demonstrated a lot of power:  he  bench-pressed 225 pounds 44 times.

With this performance he might have lifted his draft stock a lot. Probably into the first 15 picks overall. He now might lead the market for Defensive Tackles in the Draft. And this translates directly into a lot of money in terms of salary and signing bonus. Poe earned himself a substantial amount of money yesterday without ever stepping on the field in the NFL. We will see how his career turns out... 

Mittwoch, 22. Februar 2012

Science or just Guessing?

Soon we will see the 2012 edition of the NFL Scouting Combine (starts today). In this meeting top college prospects come together in one dome (the home of the Indianapolis Colts in Indianapolis) and work out in front of cameras. Why? Because team officials, GMs and coaches want to see the players they will likely draft in April's NFL Draft.

But how much should we make of what we see at the Combine? Recently Stephen J. Dubner dedicated a section of his Football Freakonomics blog to the science of drafting and player evaluation. He more or less concludes that "scouting", as sports insiders call it, is actually nothing more than just guessing and when it comes to the draft luck is probably more important than the work you put into player evaluation. Dubner also mentions one all-time bust when it comes to the NFL draft: Ryan Leaf. As he mentions, Leaf once was labeled a "can't miss Quarterback" from the PAC-10 division. A prospect nobody would have considered a mistake-prone player, who never managed to establish himself in the NFL and soon ended up finding himself out of professional football. This year another PAC-10 QB will probably end up getting drafted 1st overall. His name is Andrew Luck. Will he be another Ryan Leaf, or are scouts right and he will have a career like Peyton Manning, the other QN drafted in Leaf's draft class?

My guess is that it is more about the signals than about luck. NFL scouts always look at the size, weight, wingspan and other variables that should indicate how good a prospect a certain player is. Just look at the number 1 passer in terms of yardage in 2011: Drew Brees. He is just 6-0 tall and still is one of the most prolific passers. Two of the top Running Backs of 2011, Maurice Jones Drew and Ray Rice, might have failed to catch the eye of many scouts, as they are really small compared to the average RB in the NFL. That is probably why they were not drafted in the first round.

The NFL Scouting Combine involves a great deal of measuring players. They have to run 40s, broad jump, do tests and participate in position drills. But what really might tell something about the players are the interviews and the attitude they bring to the table. That, along with the tape of their play in the NCAA, should tell more about their talent and potential than their size, weight or 40 time. To evaluate how much luck is involved in the draft and player evaluation one would have to look at the success of different teams over a long period of time. I think there are huge differences between teams over time. The final word on the Economics of drafting is far from being said...

Freitag, 10. Februar 2012

Next one please!

Just days after Alberto Contador was found guilty of doping abuse by the CAS, Jan Ullrich shared his fate. He was found guilty of having business relations with famous doping medic Fuentes.

Ullrich was the brightest star of all German cyclists and won the 1997 Tour de France when his captain, Bjarne Riis (also a doper), struggled. Back then he was only 23 years old and all the hopes of German fans were on his shoulders. It seemed as if a future perennial winner of the Tour was born. However, things turned out differently. Ullrich never returned to the top of the Peloton and was often defeated by his nemesis Lance Armstrong. All of Ullrichs results since 2005 will be lost but he might not even care, as he failed to deliver what the public vehemently demanded: a second win of the Tour de France.

This could be a great chance to finally come clean and open up to the media and the prosecutors of the ongoing system of doping in pro cycling. Ullrich, however, only admits that he made "some big mistakes" under tremendous pressure. Whatever it is that keeps him quiet, I guess it is somewhat related to the only thing that is left: his win in 1997. Ullrich was a part of the doping machinery Team Telekom. He was cycling under Riis, who admitted having used performance enhancing substances when he won the Tour in 1996. Ullrich performed at the same (or at a better) level as well known dopers. So it is only logic that one might assume he was also involved in the doping system before 2005.

I wonder who will be next in line to be found guilty. Some winners of recent Tour de Frances are still perceived as clean...at least before the law.

Donnerstag, 9. Februar 2012

There is education...and then there is education.

In a recent article my colleague René Böheim and me show that playing football in the NCAA does have positive returns in terms of later starting salaries of NFL professionals. We find that forgoing to declare for the draft and staying in collegiate football does increase rookie salaries considerably by about 12 %, amounting in about $130,000.

We interpreted the training, coaching and in-game experience that athletes receive in college as a form of education. The returns to this specific type of education are strikingly close to those that were measured for formal education, i.e. years of schooling. In the 2010 NFL draft one player made headlines because he, in contrast to most NFL professionals, has amounted substantially more formal education compared to "football-specific education". The name of this player is Myron Rolle. Rolle played three good seasons at the Florida State University as a Defensive Back and was a solid prospect as a Safety in the NFL. However, prior to the 2008/9 NCAA season, Rolle was awarded a Rhodes Scholarship and studied  MSc in Medical Anthropology at Oxford University for the 2009/10 academic. He earned a MSc in Medical Anthropology and was even chosen as the second smartest professional athlete by the Sporting News.

Well, was he that smart after all? By losing a season in college, staying away from football-specific activities and forgoing to maximize his amount of football education in favor of formal education, he might have cost himself a lot in terms of later returns. Soon after being drafted by the Tennessee Titans in round 6 (207th overall)  Rolle's NFL career went south. He spent one entire season on the Titans’ practice squad and was released from the team in September 2011. He made the headlines again just a few days ago as he was signed by the Pittsburgh Steelers to a reserve/future contract. So maybe he gets a final chance to make it to the pros. My guess is, however, that he will never realize the returns to his football potential. He definitely has the talent (his play at FSU shows that) and he had good size and was a above-average athlete (4.54 s on the 40 in the NFL Scouting Combine). But he could not make it at a team that was really in need of a good secondary defender. So he will probably struggle to make one of the best defensive team in the NFL now. And this second chance comes at a point where he is even further away from football than in 2010, where he never saw the field of play.

The results clearly show that education (in various forms) has positive returns. However, it is crucial to chose the adequate education for the career one pursues. Arguably Myron Rolle made the wrong decisions as the overall potential income in the NFL might have been higher than the life-time income of any neurosurgeon. If his football career indeed finally fails I hope he will have a tremendous career outside of the NFL as a surgeon. My guess is that he is better educated for that. As a football player, Rolle outsmarted himself.

Dienstag, 7. Februar 2012

The Good, the Bad and the very Ugly.

Just two days ago the Super Bowl, once again, proved to be the most exciting single-day sports event in the world. TV ratings set another record, the game was competitive and the NFL once again proved to be the reigning professional sports league, not only in the US but worldwide.  Everything from sports to entertainment was close to perfection an even the small "scandal" involving M.I.A.'s middle-finder almost feels to good to be a mistake.

A professional league that can only dream of a product similar to NFL football is the NBA. Recently several writers and former player Charles Barkley heavily criticized the quality of the current level of play in the NBA. As if that was not enough, it seems that the number of (severe) injuries rose significantly in comparison with other NBA seasons. People have come out quickly and blamed the lockout and the tight schedule for this. But this conclusion seems too quick and too easy to me. One must not forget that the NFL also lost most of the offseason and while some argued that basics of the game like tackling was worse than usual the NFL once again delivered a nearly perfect season. So maybe it is a more serious problem than just the lockout and the short season...

But now it get's really ugly: What has clearly overshadowed the Super Bowl was the announcement of the doping penalty for Spain's professional cycler Alberto Contador. He was suspended for 2 years dating back to his alleged doping abuse in 2010. This results in the loss of all of his wins in that time, including the 2010 Tour de France win and the 2011 Giro d'Italia. Yet another big time fraud in professional cycling, a sport very close to losing the last bit of credibility it still had. Now that Contador lost his 2010 Tour de France title, Any Schleck is awarded the title. Well, that might not be too much of an improvement, as the name Schleck (Frank, his brother and loyal teammate) was also in the media in connection with the Fuentes doping scandal. I would argue that the performances of Andy and Frank Schleck should at least make one suspicious. If others (the cases prove that) consistently used doping to improve their performances, how can the Schlecks compete on the same (if not better) level (and the level is very high, check here)? Anyway, as long as they do not test positive we have to assume they are clean. However, if you look at the following quote by Andy Schleck you can draw your own conclusion:

Feb, 2011 -  La Stampa (Italy, translated): "Cycling is one of the cleanest sport in the world."

Well, obviously not...