While there are a couple of other interesting developments in sports (e.g. the significant poll results for the Olympic candidacy of Munich or the new betting scandal in Austrian professional Football (which might be just the tip of an iceberg)) I have to - finally - continue my blog by discussing the recent news on the decline of Pop Warner Football in the US.
As many news agencies report, Pop Warner participation has declined nearly 10 percent over the last three years. This is significant and substantial and some commentators have raised the question: Is the future quality of (Professional) Football in the US in danger? Before all European Football teams start celebrating and expect to beat US teams 10 or 20 years down the road, we have to take a closer look.
Pop Warner Football is a possible gate to a live or career in Football. From there on, the way can potentially lead through high school football, collegiate football to the promised land of the highest level of pro football, the NFL. Or any other professional league that offers considerable salaries and career opportunities. So if talent on the first talent pool - and this is the main argument of those who raised their warning voices - declines, we will eventually see a trickle-down effect which will endanger the quality of the game and players in the NFL.
The whole argument is certainly not far-fetched, as Football - like anything where certain skills are needed - needs institutions that teach those specific skills to the players. In one of our paper (Böheim and Lackner, 2012), we show that Football involves education like any other profession does. And it yields comparable returns if you analyze the in terms of additional entry-wages per year spent in college football. So if education on early stages is eroding, it is reasonable to conclude that the specific skills needed to play football at the highest level will eventually become scarce. But how big of a problem will this really be? Considering the fact that the maximum time to stay in the NCAA Football system is limited to 5 years (with 1 year of little participation at all), it might be something felt by NFL times as players might enter the league with a lower skill-set than in previous decades.
But what should really change? The career possibilities as well as the potential earnings for a player in the NFL are still very intriguing. True, careers in Football are shorter than those in other major leagues, but the NFL still is on the top of all professional leagues in terms of (worldwide) popularity, the amount of money and salaries involved and the general product that it offers. If the decline of Pop Warner Football does indeed damage the extremely high popularity of the NFL and its product, I could imagine that the current development is quite dangerous. But if the fish does not stink from the head downwards, the incentives to acquire the necessary skills will be there and the inflow of talent will not be endangered. NFL teams and NCAA programs, however, might have to adjust their way of further developing their prospect players' talent as they might need more additional training.
The whole discussion comes at a time, where the NFL has to deal with serious problems in terms of long-term health consequences of Football. A number of tragic cases of former players who were suffering from concussion-related long-term health issues and committed suicide, has revealed a substantial problem for the NFL. This is a big threat to the league and the popularity of the sport. It certainly also plays a major role in the decline of Pop Warner as parents will be reluctant to allow their kids to participate in a sport they perceive as highly dangerous. And this is the area where the NFL has to put most effort in. If they manage to make Football safe and deal with the past of neglected health consequences, the future of the NFL is as bright as ever and eventually kids will return to Pop Warner.
