In one of my last postings here I talked about a milestone in passing yards set by Drew Brees. He set a new record in single-season passing yards and had one of the most prolific seasons ever. Today the news are full of articles on another outstanding event in the NFL: The Denver Broncos, lead by Tim Tebow, beat the Pittsburgh Steelers in the NFL Wildcard playoffs and advanced to play the New England patriots next week. And all eyes are on Tim Tebow and his "milehigh magic".
But what is behind it? Tim Tebow had one of the worst passing seasons in the history of the NFL for a team that made the playoffs. He had a 46.5 % completion rate for 1,729 yards and 12 touchdowns along with 6 interceptions. For a Quarterback who started 11 games this is, objectively speaking, bad. If not to say terrible. But how do these statistics translate in terms of the final standings? Well, the Broncos went 8-8 and limped into the playoffs losing their final game of the season. As a starter Tebow went 7-4 to finish the season after his predecessor K. Orton was let go. So the Broncos won 64 % of the games Tebow started. Perhaps more important: They lost the three games that arguably counted the most, i.e. the final three games. Evidently enough to label Tebow a winner in professional football.
So what was the difference in Tebow's performance during the first 8 games (7-1) and the last 3 games? Well, his average passing yardage was, believe it or not, almost identical. He passed for 151 yards when he went 7-1 and 146 when he went 0-3. His completion percentage has not changed either and his worst game in that category was actually a win in week 10 with 25%. His rushing yardage also stayed the same. What did change, however, is the number of interceptions Tebow threw. He threw 2 in his first 8 and 4 in his final 3 games.
So Tebow started to turn the ball over, which is certainly critical in football. But what else happened? The Denver Defense did not play well. They allowed 29.34 points per game during the 3 games finale while allowing just 20.25 points during the 8-1 run. This explains a lot, as Denver, on average, only scored 18.5 points per game with Tebow as a starter. What also has changed was the amount of tape on the Broncos teams had. They slowed down their pass rush, defended the run better and forced Tebow into turnovers.
Yesterday Tebow's Broncos won because of a few plays. Tebow had only 10 completions, averaging 15 yards. This average per pass is a career high, whereas his completion percentage was even below his career average. Why was the average that high? I would argue a lot of that has to do with a number of mistakes by Steelers corner Ike Taylor and a nice run after the catch by Broncos WR Thomas. Tebow had some throws right on target and some throws were as bad as they get. All in between was not outstanding at all and definitely not the reason why Denver won the game. And do not forget the Steelers injuries and the fact that their Quarterback played on one foot.
The bottom line is that the Broncos have won and that is what experts, coaches and players tell you. And that is what Tebow is known for: winning. But that is only the media friendly story of it. US sports produce a ton of statistics and analysts have always been good in using them to evaluate players and their performances. In the case of Tim Tebow they fail because most of them have fallen in love with the image of Tebow as the "chosen one" who just wins. The truth is that the Denver defense along with an outstanding running game, injuries of opponents and opposing defenses that did not know how to defend them created the successful season. I am going as far as saying that Denver won a number of games DESPITE having Tebow as the starter.
Right now the number of observations on Tebow's performance is too small to take an even closer look. Usually NFL teams need some time to adapt to novelties. Remember Miami's wildcat? We will see next year how the story continues. Still, I wonder how the Broncos would actually perform with a Quarterback producing stats anywhere near what Drew Brees put up this year...
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