Concussions

In the upcoming days of the annual NFL spring meetings this week, there was a lot of discussion going on about the NFL and the obvious problems of negative long-term health effects of the game on players. In the wake of Junior Seau's tragic death, the question of the NFL's responsibility for retired players is more prominent than ever.

One phenomenon that was often downplayed or even ignored is the number of concussions professional football players suffer from during their careers. The league is facing an avalanche of lawsuits from former players who argue that they suffer from neglected long-term effects from ignored head injuries and concussions. While the NFL was quick to release a study which should prove that retired NFL players actually live longer than other people. The study, carried out by the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH), is focusing on all retirees who played in the NFL for at least five seasons from 1959 through 1988. It argues that playing in the NFL actually offered health benefits. While I do not know the exact details of the study (some results are presented here), I am sure that most of the problems you will face when evaluating the healt effects of a certain activity, were not dealt with adequately. Of course, the group of NFL player is highly selected and in order to make it to the NFL, you have to be in above-average health conditions already. So there is a lot of potential for sample selection bias and there is definitely not the full information on injuries like concussions. Moreover, the study has no power to prove any form of causality between playing in the NFL and long-term health effects.

What should be evaluated is the effect of playing in the NFL compared to other sports. We, and definitely the NFL, should be interested in the influence of the number of concussions on long-term health and brain conditions in retirement age. The NIOSH study concludes that former NFL players had a much lower rate of death overall compared to men in the general population. This does by no means surprise me. And it has no power as evidence that former NFL players do not suffer from negative effects when they have retired.

It will be interesting to see how Commissioner Goodell will address this issue in the future and at the spring meetings. The current stance of the commissioner on the Saints "bountygate scandal" indicates that the problem of (head) injuries and possible consequences has already been addressed. My intuition is that the danger of losing a huge amount of money in upcoming lawsuits is the main reason for this. The long-term health of players, however, should be the only reason. The NIOSH study does not tell us anything (new). While the neurologists are already working on the issues, a lot of further research in this area is needed. 

Money can't buy you...or can it?

Last weekend most Europena football leagues found their 2012 champions. The new Champion of the English Premiere League is Manchester City, the Italian Champion is Juventus Turin, in Spain, although already on top, Real Madrid was able to break the 100 points barrier and (because of home bias) the new champion in Austria is Red Bull Salzburg.

So what do Machester City, Juventus Turin and Red Bull Salzburg have in common? Well, ManCity is financed by  Sheik Mansour, Juventus by Fiat through Italy's richest sponsoring contract, and, of course, RB Salzburg is one of many "Red Bull operated" clubs. With UEFA's fair play initiative on the way things might (and I am still sceptical) change in favor of open competitions with more equal chances for all clubs who are not supported by a powerful oligarch, a sheik or a local business.

While Real Madrid is not really known for financial responsibility, one example for a national champion who has not won due to financial power is Borussia Dortmund. Dortmund has just defeated FC Bayern for the fifth time this season (5:2 in Berlin) to capture the DFB cup on Saturday, despite featuring a budged significantly lower than Bayern's. In fact Borussia Dortmund was in financial ruins following a period of heavy spending and transformation into a share issuing business in the mid/late 1990s. From this financial turmoil the club made a complete restart and focused on developing young talents while operating strictly within their financial limits. In contrast to their local rival, Schalke 04, who are heavily sponsored by Gazprom, Dortmund was highly successful during the last two seasons and is said to have surpassed FC Bayern as the dominating force in German football.

Time will tell if Dortmund and their almost unique approach towards the "business" of professional football will carry over into longterm success and a permanent ability to challenge the heavy-spending FC Bayern. However, in times where titles are usually going to towns where big money is, it is refreshing to see that it is not always money that brings success. Maybe it is not UEFA Fair Play that will change Europena football. Maybe all it needs are some clubs that change their attitude and have success on and off the field of play.

Congratulations Dortmund!