First: let me apologize for the long time I have not posted anything here on my blog, but I've been busy with a recent research project you will hopefully read a lot about here in a few month...
A lot has happened since, mostly related to the activities before the upcoming NFL draft and the New Orleans Saints "bounty scandal". I am already on records on this topic and it is amazing how the NFL (in person of the Commissioner) is destroying the NFL feelgood story of the last 5 years. More on this soon. As it looks now we might even have a second spygate.
But something else happened this weekend. We saw the 21st perfect game in the history of Major League Baseball. It belongs to Philip Humber of the Chicago White Sox. First let me say this: I am not taking away anything Humber has achieved on this day. I saw the game and he had a magnificent pitching performance, completely dominating the Seattle Mariners. But was his game really perfect? His last pitch, to me, was a clear ball and I have not seen a swing by his last batter. This final out came on a check-swing strikeout of Brendan Ryan, where be barely swung and obviously thought he earned himself a walk.
Statistics in sports are important and I have use them regularly to study human behavior and economics. But baseball really takes statistics to the limit. I really love the sport and it is an amazing setting to study decision making under pressure conditions. On Saturday I had the feeling that on his last at bat Philip Humber, who by the way has never even pitched a complete game before Saturday, was awarded the perfect game rather then really earning it. And here decision making comes into play: What did Humber do on this all important pitch with a 3-2 count, facing a probably once-in-a-lifetime chance? He throws a ball down and away. Does this make any sense? Why would somebody who wants to get the batter out at any price throw an obvious ball when it counted most? I think it is obvious: He wanted to save his no-hitter. If he throws a ball over the strike zone and he gives up a hit, his complete game, as well as his no-hit bid are gone. So instead of rolling the dice, he threw an awful (and it was clearly visible that the ball did not get away from him) ball and was lucky (or just had the right umpire) to get the strikeout. Arguably a perfectly rational decision.
In the 9th inning, when Humber was about to make history, the game was all about one thing: "will he do it, or not?" So a personal achievement becomes more important then the actual win of the White Sox. And I think that Humber decided to protect the second-best outcome with his final pitch rather than going for the perfect game. The officials still handed him his part in history.
I argue that Philip Humber had an amazing performance, even if he had walked this batter. Even if he had given up a hit on that pitch. Putting away all that perfect-game no-hitter craze he still had a historic performance. Congratulations!
