A new season under the Christmas tree!

On 25th Dec. the shortened version of the 2011/12 NBA season will finally tip off. While outlooks were already very grim owners and players finally made a new deal. And the winners are: the owners! They managed to change their share of Basketball-Related Income from 43 percent in the previous labor deal to a 49 percent to 51 percent band in the new deal. This is a significant shift in power which earns the owners about 1 billion dollars. And this sum could increase up to 2 billion dollars if the deal holds the entire 10 years.

While the new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) includes several changes on salary caps, free agency and player contracts, the new balance of power is the central feature of this deal. The owner clearly won the stare down and the players probably thought that they would lose more from a lost season. And that would probably be true. Not so much in primary indicators like salaries or sponsorship contract, but with all the intangible losses that would have come along with a lost season. All (aging) superstars like Lebron James, Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett or Tim Duncan would have lost stats, a chance to win a championship and a ton of prestige. One of the central figures in the talks, Derek Fisher (president of the players union National Basketball Players Association (NBPA)), is well beyond his prime and a canceled season could have been the end of his career.

So the players had the feeling that a continued lockout would cost them the most. The owners might be happy now, but I wonder what the longtime effects of the lockout will be. My perception is that the owners have not exactly improved their image and there is certainly a damaged good called NBA right now. Maybe the lockout is forgotten in 2 or 3 years, but in my opinion it will have longer lasting effects. A lot of small market teams could be in trouble soon.

So maybe the owner have won for now, but this win could come back to haunt them...

Any improvement?

This week some reports on a possible BCS reform came out. Reportedly, some BCS decision makers along with BCS executive director Bill Hancock are leaning towards an expansion of the current series of BCS bowls by one game. This series of 5 bowls should then serve as a "small playoff" for a single BCS championship game.

The current realignment in top-tier NCAA football (FBS) formed some even more powerful conferences. The SEC and the PAC-12 (formerly known as the PAC-10) are more powerful than ever, while the BIG EAST's status is still undecided. The current discussions on the BCS reform also includes the possibility of allowing more than just two participants by conference in BCS bowls. So where is the reform? We could now get even more SEC or PAC-12 teams in the run for the championship and large revenues. So the rich are getting richer. Forming a pseudo-playoff, like the one currently discussed, would probably stop ongoing the antitrust discussion for a moment. But installing a true playoff system and sharing revenues with potential underdogs winning the tournament is something completely different. Sounds like a cover-up move which actually worsens the status quo.

Asked for a playoff system similar to NCAA basketball Bill   Hancock  is quoted saying: "I do not hear a groundswell of support". Well, what a surprise...

Will they play?

As of today it looks as if the "current" NBA season will never tip off. Players have recently turned down the 50:50 offer from NBA owners. This is no surprise, as they were favored in the previous labor deal. Owners even pressed for a 53-47 deal.

Now several sources (NBA.com is among them) report that all games until Dec. 15. are canceled. The NBA players union (NBPA) was dissolved and several players filed two antitrust lawsuits against the NBA. One suit was filed in California, with Carmelo Anthony and Kevin Durant among five plaintiffs. The second one was filed in Minnesota, naming four plaintiffs. They are seeking summary judgment and treble damages totaling three times the players' lost wages due to the lockout. While this might not be the end of the current mess, the damage could already amount up to an estimated $2.4 billion.

The outlook is already very bleak and my feeling is that we will not see a 2011/12 NBA season. Moreover, the rulings on the suits will have major implications on the future of professional basketball in the US. All players would lose a whole year of showing and improving their skills on the court. Aging superstars will suffer most from this. Rookies will be lost in a power-vacuum. Owners will miss their gate revenues and sponsorship deals. The value of the NBA brand will suffer considerably. Maybe beyond repair...

In the end the crucial question will still be: Who will lose more?

From Paul to Saul

The current lockout situation in the NBA is heating up. While the regular season should already be in full gear the NBA is still amidst a deadlock between players and owners. Recently NBA commissioner David Stern made an offer of a 50-50 split of basketball-related income between teams and players. After a Tuesday meeting the president of the NBA players association (NBPA) Derek Fisher turned the offer down. So we might be in for a long, long time without NBA basketball...

One person and his (changed) role in the current talks is particularly interesting:  Michael Jordan, owner of the Charlotte Bobcats. He once was a fierce competitor in the last NBA labor dispute in 1998/99, he has completely changed and is now in favor of a solution handing a larger share to team owners. Now that Jordan is a team owner himself, he made a u-turn and advocates a 53%-47% split (or even better) in favor of owners. Jordan has turned into a hardline owner and is far from being the same person who once advised Washington Wizards owner Abe Pollin to sell his team if he was not making profits.  NBPA executive director Billy Hunter gave him the same advice now.

Jordan's stance on NBA labor talks tells a lot about his feeling towards the game of basketball. He is still applauded as the best player in NBA history. He was an icon for millions of kids and basketball fans all over the world. But now he has turned into an owner who has only one objective: to maximize his profits. Well, without his players Jordan won't make any profits. Even a third comeback would not attract much of an audience now that he is well over 45...

Some quick shots...

• In the latest realignment aftermath Illinois congressman Bobby Rush is quoted saying: "I think they're just one of the most vicious, most ruthless organizations ever created by mankind," He also said: "I think you would compare the NCAA to Al Capone and to the Mafia.". Yet another politician acknowledging the fact that something is wrong with America's collegiate sports system.
• Boise State was now officially invited to join the BIG EAST college Football conference. So the biggest "BCS Buster" in recent years is now open to enter a BCS conference (  automatic-qualifying conference) and some BCS officials will probably exhale in relieve. Boise State comes from the Mountain West Conference (MW), a non-automatic-qualifying conference, and was one of the most successful programs in NCAA football in recent years. As we know from Economics a cartel can become more powerful the more members join. In order to keep the BCS, and maybe the BIG EAST, alive the Boise States of FBS have to be in.
• Today the NBA should have the opening night of the 2011/12 season. It should have, but the strike is still on and labor talks are still intense and far from a solution. Now is the time when it starts hurting, as profits are left on the street. Which side will give in first? 
• Can you buy success in sports? This is a good and important question. The latest World Series featured two teams ranked 11th (St. Louis Cardinals) and 13th (Texas Rangers). The heavy-spending New York Yankees fell short this year, although they have almost the same payroll as the Texas Rangers and Cardinals together. Let's see how Bayern Munich finishes in the German Bundesliga this year...
• Yes, money and success in sports are not always (closely) related. Chris Johnson, NFL Running Back for the Tennessee Titans, was awarded a $53.5 million (including $30 million guaranteed) contract extension with the Titans after holding out for an extended period and creating a big media drama. Now, 8 games into the NFL season, Johnson continues to struggle big time and he has to share carries with his backup Javon Ringer. Ringer, who is obviously playing much better right now, has a contract of only around 5 percent of Johnson's. The future will tell if Johnson is worth the money. Right now this investment is not paying the right dividends.